The rise and fall of bus passenger numbers

Featured in the Future Transport London Newsletter April 2026

By Andrew Bosi

The recent decline in bus passenger numbers now exercising the Mayor and GLA Transport Committee is not a new phenomenon. From 1958 to the early 1980s there was steady decline in bus usage. In the ten years to December 1969 the scheduled fleet fell from 7756 to 6900, if Country buses and Green Line services are included. Scheduled red buses fell from 6451 to 5785.

This decline reflected a growth in private car ownership and poor industrial relations. A prolonged strike in 1958 precipitated the decline; dozens of routes were withdrawn from January 1966 in response to an overtime ban. The increasing number of private cars added to congestion, adding to bus journey times especially at peak periods. A record was set on Maundy Thursday, 1972 when a number 15 took eleven hours to complete its journey, including 55 minutes in Edgware Road without moving. The (lack of) management added to the woes of bus users.

The seeds of recovery began with Fare’s Fair in 1981. The fare stages were replaced by a simplified system of four zones. Though the scheme, which extended to the Underground, was ruled illegal after a challenge by Bromley Council (which had no Underground services), the Mayor was able to revise his zonal system in a way that satisfied the courts and reduced the cost of travel by public transport.

Other factors were working in favour of buses. Parking meters, introduced in 1959 but rendered ineffective by vandalism, were replaced by Controlled Parking Zones which gave priority to locals and their visitors (tradespeople) over commuters. Parking spaces diminished in numbers and, instead of driving to zone 2 for public transport, cars were left at home.

The decline in London’s population from a high in 1939 ended in 1983 and the population began to increase again. The demise of crew operation in favour of one person operation was paused for about twenty years.

The Congestion Zone, and the careful planning that went into it including improvements to bus services in anticipation of the CZ, rather than a reaction to it, boosted bus use. Additional buses on the 38, then the most heavily used route with more passengers than the Croydon Tramlink, were filled within six months.

Even after crew operation came to an end, some frequencies were improved. But after the western extension of the CZ was cancelled, congestion began to return. The CZ is rather clunky, and putting intellect before politics it was obvious that a system of road pricing was needed to regulate road use (as the railways have done quite successfully through their complex fare structures).

A number of factors accentuated the decline which followed. The success of the cyclists’ lobby has in some cases given priority to the legitimate safety needs of predominantly fit white males over the needs of people with disabilities, the range and extent of which is not always understood. Some bus lanes were replaced by cycle lanes, with consequent increase in bus journey times, for example on Farringdon Road.

The complaints about low growth and economic activity have not been borne out by a reduction in road closures. While many LTNs have proved successful, insufficient thought was given to bus diversionary routes with the result that stops are not served and journey times extended. Having nowhere to board the bus within 500 yards of home is bound to discourage bus use, and may prevent travel to work.

Quality contracts were introduced to incentivise operators to maintain a good service, but they have outlived their usefulness and too often lead to unnecessary delays as the driver is ‘instructed to wait in order to regulate the service’.

Work from home was already on the increase before Covid and has clearly had an impact on peak services, including a change to the hours at which footfall peaks.

Information at bus stops is less assiduously kept up to date (one stop has a poster upside down, another has timetables dated 2023 and 2025 for the same route). Countdown information is often inaccurate or missing.

Like diversionary routes, little thought is given to bus turning arrangements. The result is that as cuts to routes are made, the terminal points are chosen for operational reasons rather than reflecting where a significant number of passengers board or alight. The Mayor relies on the hopper fare to justify forcing people to change buses but the fare is irrelevant to pass holders or people hitting the daily cap. It does not address the added uncertainty of total journey time, or the inconvenience of changing buses in inclement weather.

Given the time taken to bring new railway projects to fruition, the only hope of meeting the mayor’s target of 80% of journeys by sustainable means lies with the bus. Cycling may have doubled, but it still represents a small proportion of journeys made.